Mar 22nd 2011

Qaddafi: Survival is not an Option

by Alon Ben-Meir

 

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies for over 20 years.

President Obama has already developed a reputation for tough talk and little action. Worse yet, the United States' cautiousness in the wake of the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan-while understandable-threaten to paint a picture of the Obama White House as weak, ineffectual and cowardly.

Just days into a military campaign to cripple Colonel Muammer al-Qaddafi's ability to launch attacks against the rebel stronghold of Benghazi, the effort is threatened by obfuscation and lack of leadership. The same kind of foot-dragging deliberations which escalated the situation by enabling time for Qaddafi's forces to turn the tide against the early advances of the rebels, now threaten to leave Libya in an open-ended civil war. By allowing such a dire situation to fester, the United States is abdicating its responsibility to provide moral leadership.

Instead, the U.S. should be neither apologetic nor abashed in clearly stating its interests: a removal of Muammar al-Qaddafi from his fiefdom in favor of a stable path toward an Arab and Libyan-led reconstitution of the Libyan state that gives voice to all the people of Libya, rather than to a single madman in Tripoli. The early impotence of the international community to respond to the tragic bloodshed was shameful. But a precedent has been set in all Arab capitals-including Tripoli: if the people demand and are willing to die for it, you must go. The success of the Arab revolutions of 2011, the fate of the Libyan people and security across North Africa and Europe demand that Qaddafi be removed from power-his survival is not an option.

The hesitance of the United States to intervene-and "nation-build"-in another Middle Eastern nation is understandable. Engagement in Afghanistan was justified but is now languishing, and the American intervention in Iraq was both ill-advised and poorly executed. But the United States need not apologize for extending moral leadership when it is direly needed, or for pursuing distinctly American interests. President Obama should first and foremost be preoccupied with these factors, not with fear that any form of intervention should be avoided due to the learned mistakes made in Iraq and Afghanistan. We also should not fear questions as to our regional positions. Our policy to support the leadership in Bahrain is based clearly on our interest to safeguard the Gulf from Iranian influence and threat, and to protect our strategic military bases. This is no secret, and we shouldn't hesitate to be clear and even bold about expressing our strategic interests, especially when they are consistent with the national interests of our Arab allies in the region. This should not preclude our continuing efforts to promote political reforms in Bahrain.

Libya, however, is indeed different than Bahrain. Despite claims by analysts that Qaddafi is of minimal concern to the United States' national security, his reign presents a genuine challenge to the White House. If the United States were to allow such a lunatic to hold onto power and slaughter his own people, any notion of the United States playing a stabilizing and positive role in the Middle East will be finished. Even so, speaking with the media on Sunday, Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff stated that "The focus of the United Nations Security Council resolution was really Benghazi, specifically, and to protect civilians. And we have done that, or we have started to do that. This is not about going after Qaddafi himself or attacking him at this particular point in time." Vice Admiral Bill Gortney, a Pentagon Spokesman, was much more direct when he recently told reports, "We are not going after Qaddafi."

The murky goals of so-called "Operation Odyssey Dawn" are already being criticized in capitals across the globe. It is simply unrealistic to suggest that an international coalition can provide sufficient support for the Libyan opposition merely by providing defense from the air alone. Furthermore, if the White House continues to display an opaque and reluctant U.S. role, it will only serve to solidify a dangerous status quo: a fractured Libya in which an enraged Qaddafi continues the bloodshed against an ill-equipped opposition whom the international coalition refuses to meaningfully support. Doing so will perpetuate the ever-strengthening view that President Obama is a weak, even cowardly, leader who has refused to stand up for America's principles and interests because of his reluctance to use military force at a time when U.S. forces are greatly extended. However, there is an alternative for President Obama to pursue: providing leadership for a coalition of Western and Arab nations to remove Qaddafi from power-which most Arab states would welcome-and map out a transition toward a proper system of governance unique to the tribal traditions of Libyan society. It is not the easy thing to do, nor perhaps the most popular-but it is the right thing to do, for the people of Libya and for U.S. interests. We should get started right now.

The League's courageous support for the no-fly zone was a central part of the rationale for the current military actions underway. The Arab League should continue to acknowledge the change and reform taking shape across the Arab world by contributing to a campaign to oust Qaddafi from power in favor of a government that would serve the interests of the Libyan people. The United States and its Western allies need to be frank with the Arab world in both public and private. If you prefer Western intervention to be limited, you must step up and provide military support of your own, which would receive the full support and guidance of the United States, Britain and France among others.

The United States could start by pressing for a two-part strategy. First, clarifying the goals of the international coalition's current campaign-unabashedly: this campaign is indeed about the much-feared catch phrase of the moment: "regime change." However, unlike Iraq, this effort will be one that serves to support the Libyan people in finishing a job that they started. This first phase should include clear communications to the Libyan military and officer corps that abandoning Qaddafi now will be the only alternative to being killed, or arrested and tried on war crimes. This will encourage further defection, especially of the high ranking officers. Second, an Arab-led coalition should provide military support to oust Qaddafi, and then work alongside a reconstituted Libyan military to combine the various Libyan tribes-whose internal rivalry has been substantially mitigated in recent decades-into a national council. Such a council could then serve to navigate the country through a stable transition toward a system of government that suits the still uniquely tribal character of the country.

An Arab-led coalition could be composed of a variety of Arab nations, including Qatar, which is already contributing to the current campaign. Chief among the coalition, however, should be Libya's reforming North African neighbors, specifically Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco. Providing leading support would re-establish Egypt's leadership in the Arab world and safeguard the stability of its neighborhood. The symbolism of Tunisia's aid would link the Libyan campaign to the revolutionary protests throughout the region, which were sparked when Tunisian street vendor Mohammed Bouazizi set himself on fire and have lasted through the Libyan rebels' courageous stand against Qaddafi. Morocco's participation would be based on the reforms it has set in motion, and would signal that the longstanding rulers of the region are indeed prepared to engage in activities that provide a greater voice to their people. The Arab street is fully supportive of removing Qaddafi, and for his neighboring nations, the more-deranged-than-ever Qaddafi continuing at the helm in Libya could significantly jeopardize the hope generated by their recent reforms. Rather than serve as the next domino in the wave of Arab revolutions in 2011, Qaddafi's hold on power could lead to an even more radical regime in Libya, which has been known to pursue weapons of mass destruction, and will now have the pretext to seek revenge against huge swaths of its own population.

In short, the threat of a lunatic Qaddafi with a vendetta against his people and the world is one that the global community, and in particular Qaddafi's neighbors, cannot afford to test. That is why such a coalition to oust him should garner the support of both the United Nations and the Arab League. It should have a limited mandate to provide stability for the establishment of a new Libyan government. Ousting Qaddafi is not only the right thing to do; it should not be an insurmountable task. Otherwise, if an emboldened Qaddafi were to stay in power, United States interests would also undoubtedly be threatened. Even more, the credibility and moral leadership of the White House would be completely shattered. To be sure, the United States must be systematic, intelligent, and efficient with how it chooses to respond-but it must be clear about its goals. Despite Qaddafi's threatening warnings of a long war, his military infrastructure is poor, and his Soviet-era weaponry considerably antiquated. With airstrikes already limiting Qaddafi's capacity, the focus should now be shifted to ousting him from power, and ‘day-after' planning should commence immediately. In fact, once Qaddafi realizes that the international community is determined to oust him from power by whatever means necessary, he will seek to negotiate a peaceful exit.

The notion that a military campaign could leave Qaddafi in place must be completely discredited. If the youth in Libya-who have so courageously stood up against the much more powerful and ruthless Libyan dictator-fail to oust him because of such Western cowardice, it will serve as a stain on this White House and a cancer on the hope and optimism that the Arab revolutions of 2011 have generated.

Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

Mar 18th 2024
EXTRACT: "....the UK’s current economic woes – falling exports, slowing growth, low productivity, high taxes, and strained public finances – underscore the urgency of confronting Brexit’s catastrophic consequences."
Mar 18th 2024
EXTRACTS: Most significant of all, Russia’s Black Sea fleet has suffered significant losses over the past two years. As a result of these Ukrainian successes, the Kremlin decided to relocate the Black Sea fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk on the Russian mainland. Compare that with the situation prior to the annexation of Crimea in 2014 when Russia had a secure lease on the naval base of Sevastopol until 2042." --- "Ukrainian efforts have clearly demonstrated, however, that the Kremlin’s, and Putin’s personal, commitment may not be enough to secure Russia’s hold forever. Kyiv’s western partners would do well to remember that among the spreading gloom over the trajectory of the war."
Mar 8th 2024
EXTRACT: "As the saying goes, 'It’s the economy, stupid.' Trump’s proposed economic-policy agenda is now the greatest threat to economies and markets around the world."
Mar 8th 2024
EXTRACT: "Russia, of course, brought all these problems on itself. It most certainly is not winning the war, either militarily or on the economic front. Ukraine is recovering from the initial shock, and if robust foreign assistance continues, it will have an upper hand in the war of attrition."
Mar 8th 2024
EXTRACT: "...... with good timing and good luck, enabled Trump to defeat [in 2016] political icon Hillary Clinton in a race that appeared tailor-made for her. But contrary to what Trump might claim, his victory was extremely narrow. In fact, he lost the popular vote by 2.8 million votes – a larger margin than any other US president in history. Since then, Trump has proved toxic at the ballot box. " -----"The old wisdom that 'demographics is destiny' – coined by the French philosopher Auguste Comte – may well be more relevant to the outcome than it has been to any previous presidential election. "----- "Between the 2016 and 2024 elections, some 20 million older voters will have died, and about 32 million younger Americans will have reached voting age. Many young voters disdain both parties, and Republicans are actively recruiting (mostly white men) on college campuses. But the issues that are dearest to Gen Z’s heart – such as reproductive rights, democracy, and the environment – will keep most of them voting Democratic."
Mar 8th 2024
EXTRACTS: "How can America’s fundamentalist Christians be so enthusiastic about so thoroughly un-Christian a politician?" ---- "If you see and think outside the hermeneutic code of Christian fundamentalism, you might be forgiven for viewing Trump as a ruthless, wholly self-interested man intent on maximizing power, wealth, and carnal pleasure. What your spiritual blindness prevents you from seeing is how the Holy Spirit uses him – channeling the 'secret power of lawlessness,' as the Book of 2 Thessalonians describes it – to restrain the advent of ultimate evil, or to produce something immeasurably greater: the eschaton (end of history), when the messiah comes again."
Mar 1st 2024
EXTRACT: "The lesson is that laws and regulatory structures are critical to state activities that produce local-level benefits. If citizens are to push for reforms and interventions that increase efficiency, promote inclusion, and enable entrepreneurship, innovation, and long-term growth, they need to recognize this. The kind of effective civil society Nilekani envisions thus requires civic engagement, empowerment, and education, including an understanding of the rights and responsibilities implied by citizenship."
Feb 9th 2024
EXTRACT: "Despite the widespread belief that the global economy is headed for a soft landing, recent trends offer little cause for optimism."
Feb 9th 2024
EXTRACT: " Consider, for example, the ongoing revolution in robotics and automation, which will soon lead to the development of robots with human-like features that can learn and multitask the way we do. Or consider what AI will do for biotech, medicine, and ultimately human health and lifespans. No less intriguing are the developments in quantum computing, which will eventually merge with AI to produce advanced cryptography and cybersecurity applications."
Feb 9th 2024
EXTRACTS: "The implication is clear. If Hamas is toppled, and there is no legitimate Palestinian political authority capable of filling the vacuum it leaves behind, Israel will probably find itself in a new kind of hell." ----- "As long as the PLO fails to co-opt Hamas into the political process, it will be impossible to establish a legitimate Palestinian government in post-conflict Gaza, let alone achieve the dream of Palestinian statehood. This is bad news for both Israelis and Palestinians. But it serves Netanyahu and his coalition of extremists just fine."
Jan 28th 2024
EXTRACTS: "According to estimates by the United Nations, China’s working-age population peaked in 2015 and will decline by nearly 220 million by 2049. Basic economics tells us that maintaining steady GDP growth with fewer workers requires extracting more value-added from each one, meaning that productivity growth is vital. But with China now drawing more support from low-productivity state-owned enterprises, and with the higher-productivity private sector remaining under intense regulatory pressure, the prospects for an acceleration of productivity growth appear dim."
Jan 28th 2024
EXTRACT: "When Chamberlain negotiated the notorious Munich agreement with Hitler in September 1938, The Times did not oppose the transfer of the Sudetenland to Germany without Czech consent. Instead, Britain’s most prestigious establishment broadsheet declared that: “The volume of applause for Mr Chamberlain, which continues to grow throughout the globe, registers a popular judgement that neither politicians nor historians are likely to reverse.” "
Jan 4th 2024
EXTRACTS: "Another Trump presidency, however, represents the greatest threat to global stability, because the fate of liberal democracy would be entrusted to a leader who attacks its fundamental principles." ------"While European countries have relied too heavily on US security guarantees, America has been the greatest beneficiary of the post-war political and economic order. By persuading much of the world to embrace the principles of liberal democracy (at least rhetorically), the US expanded its global influence and established itself as the world’s “shining city on a hill.” Given China and Russia’s growing assertiveness, it is not an exaggeration to say that the rules-based international order might not survive a second Trump term."
Dec 28th 2023
EXTRACT: "For the most vulnerable countries, we must create conditions that enable them to finance their climate-change mitigation" ........ "The results are already there: in two years, following the initiative we took in Paris in the spring of 2021, we have released over $100 billion in special drawing rights (SDRs, the International Monetary Fund’s reserve asset) for vulnerable countries.By activating this “dormant asset,” we are extending 20-year loans at near-zero interest rates to finance climate action and pandemic preparedness in the poorest countries. We have begun to change debt rules to suspend payments for such countries, should a climate shock occur. And we have changed the mandate of multilateral development banks, such as the World Bank, so that they take more risks and mobilize more private money."
Dec 27th 2023
EXTRACT: "....if AI causes truly catastrophic increases in inequality – say, if the top 1% were to receive all pretax income – there might be limits to what tax reforms could accomplish. Consider a country where the top 1% earns 20% of pretax income – roughly the current world average. If, owing to AI, this group eventually received all pretax income, it would need to be taxed at a rate of 80%, with the revenue redistributed as tax credits to the 99%, just to achieve today’s pretax income distribution; funding the government and achieving today’s post-tax income distribution would require an even higher rate. Given that such high rates could discourage work, we would likely have to settle for partial inequality insurance, analogous to having a deductible on a conventional insurance policy to reduce moral hazard."
Dec 21st 2023
EXTRACT: "Shocks are here to stay, and our task is not to predict the next one – although someone always does – but to sharpen our focus on resilience. Staying the course of politically mandated policies while minimizing the inevitable dislocations is easier said than done. But that is no excuse to fall for the myth of being victimized by the unprecedented."
Dec 21st 2023
EXTRACTS: "A new world is indeed emerging. It will be characterized not only by more interdependencies, but also by more insecurity, danger, and war. Stability in international relations will become a foreign concept from a bygone age – one that we did not fully appreciate until it was gone."
Dec 14th 2023
EXTRACT: "Yet one must never forget that Putin is first and foremost an intelligence officer whose dominant trait is suspicion."
Dec 2nd 2023
EXTRACTS: "In a recent commentary for the Financial Times, Martin Wolf trots out the specter of a 'public-debt disaster,' that recurrent staple of bond-market chatter. The essence of his argument is that since debt-to-GDP ratios are high, and eminent authorities are alarmed, 'fiscal crises' in the form of debt defaults or inflation “loom. And that means something must be done.' ----- "If, as Wolf fears, 'real interest rates might be permanently higher than they used to be,' the culprit is monetary policy, and the real risk is not rich-country public-debt defaults or inflation. It is recession, bankruptcies, and unemployment, along with inflation." ---- "Wolf surely knows that the proper remedy is for rich-country central banks to bring interest rates back down. Yet he doesn’t want to say it. He seems to be caught up, possibly against his better judgment, in bond vigilantes’ evergreen campaign against the remnants of the welfare state."
Nov 27th 2023
EXTRACT: "The first Russia, comprising those living in Russia’s two biggest cities, Moscow and Saint Petersburg, can pretend there is no war at all." ---- "Then there is the other Russia, the one you find in small towns and villages scattered across the country’s massive territory. Here, the Ukraine war is a source of patriotic pride,"